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Our science publications

The first outputs from CANARI are now reaching publication stage – check back regularly for updates.

Weisheimer, A., Baker, L.H., Bröcker, J., Garfinkel, C.I., Hardiman, S.C., Hodson, D.L., Palmer, T.N., Robson, J.I., Scaife, A.A., Screen, J.A. and Shepherd, T.G., 2024. The signal-to-noise paradox in climate forecasts: revisiting our understanding and identifying future priorities. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

Moat, B.I., Sinha, B., Berry, D.I., Drijfhout, S.S., Fraser, N., Hermanson, L., Jones, D.C., Josey, S.A., King, B., Macintosh, C. and Megann, A., 2024. Ocean Heat Convergence and North Atlantic multidecadal heat content variability. Journal of Climate.

Chan, W.C.H., Arnell, N.W., Darch, G., Facer-Childs, K., Shepherd, T.G. and Tanguy, M., 2024. Added value of seasonal hindcasts to create UK hydrological drought storylines. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences.

Oltmanns, M., Holliday, N.P., Screen, J., Moat, B.I., Josey, S.A., Evans, D.G. and Bacon, S., 2024. European summer weather linked to North Atlantic freshwater events in preceding years. Weather and Climate Dynamics Discussions.

Ascott, M.J., Gooddy, D.C., Marchant, B., Kieboom, N., Bray, H. and Gomes, S., 2024. Regional scale evaluation of nitrate fluctuations in groundwater using cluster analysis and standardised hydrometeorological indices. Journal of Hydrology.

Barker, L.J., Hannaford, J., Magee, E., Turner, S., Sefton, C., Parry, S., Evans, J., Szczykulska, M. and Haxton, T., 2024. An appraisal of the severity of the 2022 drought and its impacts. Weather.

Parry, S., Mackay, J.D., Chitson, T., Hannaford, J., Bell, V.A., Facer-Childs, K., Kay, A., Lane, R., Moore, R.J., Turner, S. and Wallbank, J., 2023. Divergent future drought projections in UK river flows and groundwater levels. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions.

Wunderling, N., von der Heydt, A.S., Aksenov, Y., Barker, S., Bastiaansen, R., Brovkin, V., Brunetti, M., Couplet, V., Kleinen, T., Lear, C.H., Lohmann, J., Roman-Cuesta, R.M., Sinet, S., Swingedouw, D., Winkelmann, R., Anand, P., Barichivich, J., Bathiany, S., Baudena, M., Bruun, J.T., Chiessi, C.M., Coxall, H.K., Docquier, D., Donges, J.F., Falkena, S.K.J., Klose, A.K., Obura, D., Rocha, J., Rynders, S., Steinert, N.J., and Willeit, M., 2024. Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: a review. Earth Syst. Dynam.

Popova, E., Aksenov, Y., Amoudry, L.O., Becker, A., Bricheno, L., Brown, J.M., Clare, M.A., Evans, A., Evans, C., Fowell, S.E., Jevrejeva, S., Jacobs, Z., Jones, D.O.B., Hibbert, A., O’Hara, F., McKinley, E., Payo-Payo, M., Pearce, C.R., Taylor, S.F.W., Sams, C. and Yool, A., 2023. Sociooceanography: an opportunity to integrate marine social and natural sciences. Perspective Article, Front. Mar. Sci.

Blockley, E.W., Aksenov, Y. , Campbell, K., Hewitt, H.T., Oltmanns, M., Screen, J.A., and Tsamados, M., 2023. Impacts of Climate Change on Arctic Sea Ice. MCCIP Science Review 2023.

Kay, A.L. and Brown, M.J., 2023. Using sub-daily precipitation for grid-based hydrological modelling across Great Britain: Assessing model performance and comparing flood impacts under climate change. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies.

Robson, J., Sutton, R., Menary, M.B. and Lai, M.W.K., 2023. Contrasting internally and externally generated Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and the role for AMOC in CMIP6 historical simulations. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

Monerie, P.A., Robson, J.I., Ndiaye, C.D., Song, C. and Turner, A.G., 2023. CMIP6 skill at predicting interannual to multi-decadal summer monsoon precipitation variability. Environmental Research Letters.

Bacon, S., 2023. Arctic sea ice, ocean, and climate evolution. Science.

Parry, S., Lavers, D., Wilby, R., Prudhomme, C., Wood, P., Murphy, C. and O’Connor, P., 2023. Abrupt drought termination in the British-Irish Isles driven by high atmospheric vapour transport. Environmental Research Letters.

Tooth, O.J., Johnson, H.L., Wilson, C. and Evans, D.G., 2023. Seasonal overturning variability in the eastern North Atlantic subpolar gyre: a Lagrangian perspective. Ocean Science.

Tanguy, M., Chevuturi, A., Marchant, B.P., Mackay, J.D., Parry, S. and Hannaford, J., 2023. How will climate change affect spatial coherence of streamflow and groundwater droughts in Great Britain? Environmental Research Letters

Harvey, B., Hawkins, E. and Sutton, R., 2023. Storylines for future changes of the North Atlantic jet and associated impacts on the UK. International Journal of Climatology

Marcheggiani, A., Robson, J., Monerie, P.A., Bracegirdle, T.J. and Smith, D., 2023. Decadal Predictability of the North Atlantic Eddy‐Driven Jet in Winter. Geophysical Research Letters.

Bacon, S., Garabato, A.C.N., Aksenov, Y., Brown, N.J. and Tsubouchi, T., 2022. Arctic Ocean Boundary Exchanges. Oceanography.

Barton, B.I., Lique, C., Lenn, Y.D. and Talandier, C., 2022. An ice‐ocean model study of the mid‐2000s regime change in the Barents Sea. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans.

Sainsbury, E.M., Schiemann, R.K., Hodges, K.I., Baker, A.J., Shaffrey, L.C., Bhatia, K.T. and Bourdin, S., 2022. Can low-resolution CMIP6 ScenarioMIP models provide insight into future European post-tropical-cyclone risk?. Weather and Climate Dynamics