CANARI at EGU General Assembly 2026

CANARI researchers will be taking part in the European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2026 (EGU26) from May 4th-May 8th at the Austria Center, Vienna. This year, we have a wide range of talks and posters where our researchers will present on topics from water resources and modelling sea ice variability to ocean currents and rapid Arctic change. Listed below are some of the CANARI-related sessions over the week. You can follow along with conference proceedings on our Linkedin page and the hashtag #EGU26.

Monday 4^th May

The North Atlantic: natural variability and global change (including OS Division Outstanding ECS Award Lecture) – Session convened by Bablu Sinha (NOC)

Ben Harvey (NCAS) – The influence of climate change on analogues of contrasting mid-latitude cyclones over the UK

• Analogues of past historical storms (e.g. Great Storm 1987) identified in the CANARI large ensemble shows that although extreme UK storms generally become fewer but more intense under future warming.

A dynamical systems analysis of deep ocean convection with applications to the subpolar North Atlantic (CANARI co-authors include Marilena Oltmanns NOC)

• A simple two-box ocean model, based on those of Welander (1982) and Kuhlbrodt et al. (2001), seasonally forced at the surface, is tuned to a variety of observation-based datasets and is used to infer the parameter stability of each regime and proximity to bifurcation/tipping.

Bablu Sinha (NOC) – Early Warning of Ocean Tipping Points: A Deep Learning model approach

• Applying a deep‑learning method to detect tipping points in the CANARI-LE shows that while current models cannot robustly predict ocean-convection tipping events, surface and subsurface variables such as mixed layer depth offer pathways to improve early warning capability.

Global climate signals of floods in near-natural rivers (CANARI co-authors include Amulya Chevuturi, Wilson Chan, Rachael Armitage and Eugene Magee UKCEH)

• • Using the global ROBIN network of near‑natural catchments, this study provides the first observational baseline of how climate variability has influence river flooding worldwide, revealing strong but regionally distinct climate–flood linkages and spatial variability in dominant flood drivers.

Tuesday 5^th May

Jamie Hannaford (UKCEH) – Drought variability in a wet country (the UK): when observation-based trends and hydroclimate projections disagree, how might we move forward? 

• Using UK droughts as a case study, this presentation sets out recommendations to guide research and policy for the need to better integration of observations, model projections and understanding of atmospheric/oceanic processes of future droughts to inform water management.

Simon Josey (NOC) – Future Evolution of Subpolar Atlantic and Arctic Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction in the CANARI Large Ensemble 

• The CANARI-LE shows that winter heat loss in the subpolar North Atlantic strengthens until the mid‑1980s before declining by 2100, with shifting contributions from sea‑air temperature gradients and Arctic sea‑ice loss, highlighting regional variations in future impacts

Elizabeth Collingwood (BAS) – The North Atlantic Re-emergence Phenomenon in a Coupled Large-ensemble Climate Model

• Using the CANARI-LE, this study provides the first robust, large ensemble assessment of North Atlantic winter SST “re-emergence” phenomenon, testing mechanisms such as stratospheric preconditioning and exploring relationships with AMOC variability

Stefanie Rynders (NOC) – Potential for future erosion in the Arctic in the CANARI HadGEM3 large ensemble

• Using the CANARI-LE, projections show that declining Arctic sea ice will lengthen the coastal erosion season for permafrost in the Arctic, with the resulting sediment and nutrient release determined by Arctic Ocean circulation and large-scale atmospheric patterns

Holly Ayers (NOC) – Freshwater-driven subpolar gyre cooling and atmospheric regime responses using a large ensemble climate model

• Analysis of the CANARI Large Ensemble highlight a dynamically consistent pathway linking freshwater import, ocean stratification changes, regional winter SST cooling, heat flux responses, and large-scale atmospheric circulation shifts.

Yevgeny Aksenov (NOC) – Ultra-high-resolution ocean-sea ice model: a new capability to simulate shelf-ocean processes

• A kilometric‑scale Arctic–North Atlantic ocean–sea‑ice model captures fine‑scale eddies, currents and sea‑ice breakup with far greater detail than coarser simulations, demonstrating value for resolving mesoscale dynamics in key regions such as East Greenland Shelf and Svalbard.

Wednesday 6^th May

Advancing the UK Hydrological Outlook using skill-based forecast blending (CANARI co-authors include Amulya Chevuturi and Wilson Chan UKCEH)

• Advancements to the UK Hydrological Outlook seasonal river flow forecasting service by bias-correcting and blending multiple ensemble forecasting methods and models to provide skilful and operationally useful predictions for UK river flows and groundwater

Thursday 7^th May

Understanding and predicting the impact of climate variability on hydrological regimes and extremes – Session co-convened by Amulya Chevuturi (UKCEH)

Friday 8^th May

James Hewitt (NCAS) – Evaluating the forecast skill of machine-learning weather prediction models across a selection of extreme UK windstorms

• An evaluation of machine learning weather prediction models for 2023/24 UK windstorms shows that wind maxima are generally well predicted but they struggle to capture small‑scale storm features but may offer rapid, low-cost ensemble information that complements traditional NWP outputs

Bablu Sinha (NOC) – Does insufficient oceanic resolution contribute to the signal to noise problem in seasonal forecasts?

• A comparison of the HadGEM3 climate model of different ocean model resolutions to test whether forecast signal to noise problems can be sufficiently resolved and how well the two configurations are able to predict their own ensemble members, attributing changes in air-sea interactions to more realistic boundary currents at higher resolutions.

Jamie Hannaford (UKCEH) – Future water resource assessments to support Net Zero: hydrological projections for England incorporating both climate change and socioeconomic demands

• A new set of hydrological projections for England integrates climate projections with projections of future abstractions and discharges to assess drought risks, enabling catchment‑scale analysis of drought and low flows and providing a accessible visualisation portal co-designed with stakeholder groups.