CANARI’s Role in Understanding Arctic Climate Risks

The recent milestone of a container ship navigating the Northern Sea Route from China to the UK underscores the profound changes in the Arctic driven by climate change. While melting ice opens new trade opportunities, it also heightens environmental and safety risks, including the potential for severe storms.

In the news article, Climate change clears northern route for first container ship | The Observer, CANARI’s lead, Professor Len Shaffrey (National Oceanography Centre) stated:

“As the climate warms and the Arctic sea ice retreats, we expect some intense storms, such as Arctic polar lows, to form further northwards as the now open ocean will be able to input heat and moisture directly into the atmosphere.”

 

CANARI is a five-year research programme using advanced Met Office climate data to model how Arctic warming will influence extreme weather patterns in the future.

Jo Hopkins, Arctic lead at the National Oceanography Centre, said the lack of sea ice created commercial opportunities but the environmental risk could not be ignored.

“These risks include pollution, contaminating the delicately balanced environment, increased noise, which is likely to disrupt marine mammal migration and communication channels, while also increasing the risk of ship strikes,”

CANARI’s work will contribute towards better assessment of the risks of the extreme weather and the impacts of climate change, and in particular, a better understanding of the potential for rapid and disruptive change.